Solitary Solidarity, Rollercoaster Market & The Stockdale Paradox
Can't not talk about Covid-19
Hey Y’all-
My goal as I write this little Newsletter in the coming weeks, is not to instill fear, but instead, hope. That said… I also want to be realistic (prepared).
Balancing Realism with Optimism
Yesterday, someone I respect, showed me the The Stockdale Paradox. I think it’s the most important thing I read this week. Not for my “Investing” (time/money) Strategy, or for healthcare reasons. But for my mental state. I like to think I’m a “healthy skeptic”.
The Stockdale Paradox gives me permission - and even proof, that - “hoping for the best but expecting/preparing for the worst” is okay, and in fact, maybe the best mindset to have. I really suggest reading about it (link above), or at least listen to this article that summarizes the concept.
The Economy / The Market
Small businesses in the US are taking a hit, and the government is stepping in. Planet Money’s: The Indicator did a great 9 minute, high-level overview of what this means. TLDL: over 50% of Small Businesses in the US have 27 days of cash runway, and restaurants have just 17 days (if you’re in SF, check this out) of cash. This is what the government has to ‘float’ for the next x-weeks.
And, extreme efforts are being taken. The Senate has passed the unprecedented $2 Trillion CARES Act. And other measures are being taken, such as mortgage relief for 90 days in California.
Last week, a lot of Americans learned about “circuit breakers”. And this week, the market continued to rollercoaster up and down. Tuesday made the Top 5 List of the Dow Jones’ biggest one-day percentage gains, of all time. Overall, we got into a Bear Market faster than ever before (just 19 days). S&P rollercoaster proof below…
Learning to be Alone
"All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone.” -Pascal
Naval is one of my favorite technologists and thinkers. Below is an amazing (6 min) clip of him talking through the concept of being alone, and ultimately, essentially: meditating.
Here is my favorite tweet thread from the week of: how to successfully live in seclusion (#SocialDistancing #ShelteringInPlace). It’s one tweet per topic, covering: “Routine, Privacy, Eat, Exercise, Clean, Connect, Perspective”.
As you stay inside, here are my favorite games we’ve been playing: Monopoly Deal, Sushi Go, Qwixx & Code Names (also available in an online version!)
Finally, as you Zoom, check out West Elm’s collab with Zoom, where you can have your dream home be your virtual background on video calls (can’t decide if this is the smartest or scammiest thing I’ve ever seen).
Venture Capital / Crypto Landscapes
Chamath Palihapitiya (former FB Exec turned VC of “Social Capital”) shares an extreme(?) viewpoint of the Venture Capital landscape on Recode Decode (podcast by far-right host, Kara Swisher).
The somewhat kooky “Pomp”, interviews Meltem Demirors, on his podcast. They discuss the state of crypto amidst all of this (among many other topics).
Opportunities* in the current landscape, by Tom Tongusz (a go-to of mine; he is a VC/thinker) - What Will This Crisis Accelerate In Your Ecosystem?
And here’s another great interview on Fortune, interviewing Hans Tung of GGV, on what opportunities exist.
*Not hurting others in “opportunities”, ie: buying masks for $2 and selling for $20.
If You Still Want More…
Here’s how to try every major streaming service for free during the coronavirus quarantine
And, I’ll leave you with this:
Stay Safe My Friends,
Brendan J Short
[Written while listening to “Coffee Table Jazz”]