We(won't)Work, New Normals & The Proportional Relationship of The Market<>Unemployment

Happy (Good) Friday,

Everyone is dealing with this Quaranteason (Quarantine Season) differently. I want to be sensitive to folks who have been affected in uniquely difficult, ways. With that (disclaimer) said, below are five topics I spent time learning about this week.

1. How to have an “Infinite Mindset”

   Simon Sinek* recently shared a great perspective with his team. It’s based on his latest book (on my reading list) The Infinite Game. You can watch the 6 minute video here: These Are Not Unprecedented Times.

   It’s the mindset. How are we going to get this through? Versus: how are we going to change to get through this?

   We’re in a dark tunnel. But there’s a light over there. I don’t know how far away that light is. But I can see it. We’re in darkness now. But when we come out of there, we will have a better train. A different train. We will be a completely different business. Some of us will have different jobs by the time we get out of this. And that’s our opportunity.

   The opportunity is: what will we be? Not: how do we preserve what we had?

   *FWIW: I have mixed feelings about Sinek.

   James Clear also dropped a great tweet, stating 4 simple things needed to achieve “exceptional results”.

2. What will the future of work look like?

   Eric Stromberg @ericstromberg

   Two categories of people: 1] Those who think COVID-19 will spark a Zoom-fueled remote work from home utopia. 2] Those with young kids.

   Jokes aside, I do believe that knowledge workers will become much more flexible in how they work. Think: more freelancers, consultants, sole proprietors, etc.

   Why?

   • Specialization (Adam Smith’s, The Wealth of Nations)

   • Trend of employees working at companies for shorter periods of time

   • Technology’s ability to enable remote work

   How will people find their (shorter-term) jobs/projects in the future? How will they market themselves? What tools/technologies will be created for deeper connectivity? What could a “WeWork 2.0” look like?

   Speaking of…

3. Here is a quick recap of WeWorks’s story, and the latest events…

   [For the expanded story, check out the podcast, WeCrashed: The Rise and Fall of WeWork]

   • Founded in 2010 by Adam Neumann

   • Filed to go public in August 2019, at a $47B valuation

   • Rocked by Criticism & Controversy over the filing, then revealed spiraling losses

   • In late 2019, Neumann announced he was stepping down as CEO as part of a buyout deal, of which he was expected to get a $1.7 billion exit package

   • This deal valued the business at a “mere” ~$8B

   • Last Thursday, SoftBank announced it would not be going forward with the deal to buy $3 billion worth of WeWork shares, including shares from Neumann

   • Tuesday, WeWork’s board sued SoftBank over their withdrawal of the deal

   • …To be continued

   A couple other corporate moves this week…

   Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath

   A tale of two loans: Slack: $750M Airbnb: $1B Slack: 0.5% interest Airbnb: 11-12% interest Slack: loan convertible to equity at +24% premium ($31/share) Airbnb: 1% in equity at -49% discount to last private valuation ($18B valuation) Slack: price maker Airbnb: price taker

   jack @jack

   I’m moving $1B of my Square equity (~28% of my wealth) to #startsmall LLC to fund global COVID-19 relief. After we disarm this pandemic, the focus will shift to girl’s health and education, and UBI. It will operate transparently, all flows tracked here:

   

   docs.google.comStart Small trackingDonations Current Value, $ 1,174,335,614.00 Current Square Share Price, $ 59.21 Number of Shares to be transferred LLC,19,833,400 Total Remaining: , $ 1,176,435,614.00 Total Dispersed:, $ (2,100,000.00) Distributed: Date, Amount ,Category,Grantee,Link,Why? 4/2/2020, $ (100,000.00),COVID-19 ,A...

4. Unemployment hits 10%

   The Labor Department released numbers showing an additional 6.6M filed for unemployed this past week. That’s ~$17M total, in the last 3 weeks. Or ~10% Unemployment in the US. Some predict it will hit 20% (or higher). For context, it was at 25% during The Great Depression in 1933.

   This, of course, is a different scenario altogether. The question now: how quickly can/will people get their jobs back after this settles down?

   Also, nearly a third of US renters did not pay their April rent.

   And yet, the market was way up this week (maybe already “priced in”? Anyone’s guess)…

   Justin @JustinAHorwitz

   Everything that is wrong with America, in one image.

   

5. The Lindy Effect

   A theory that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.

   I’ve been thinking about this in the context of business, trends and even media I consume.

   If something has only been popular for two months (see: Tiger King), it is likely it will only be popular for another 2 months. But, a movie that has been popular for 10 years will likely be popular for another 10 years.

   As I think about how I want to spend my time (watching, working on, etc.), I’m trying to prioritize things that have already stood the test of time.

PS - is anyone else having weird dreams during Quarantine? You’re not alone - here’s why it’s happening.

Be well,

Brendan J Short