Season 3, Learning Machines & Tesla's Super Bull
Season 3, Episode 1
Howdy y’all!
Spring is upon us. And this year, it brings an especially unique sense of hope. Light at the end of the tunnel, thanks to the dropping numbers in new Covid cases, and the increasing number of people vaccinated.
I am hopeful, and excited, for the amazing Roaring 20’s ahead! 🤞
Before we jump into today’s post, I wanted to share a quick update on this corner of the internet we’ve come to fondly know as: “What I Learned” aka this newsletter.
You may, or may not, have noticed, but my recent posts have been much longer, and covering a single topic. This was an intentional experiment. It was fun. But it was tiring. And alas, I am here to say, the future posts, will be less wordy. 😃
I have a lot going on these days, and want to spend more time in other places.
For those who care (mostly looking at you @mom), here is how I would describe the “Seasons” of this humble little Newsletter’s life, thus far:
Season 1: “Five bullet points on the latest happenings in tech.”
- There were 54 episodes, and averaged ~550 words per post.*Season 2: “a deep dive on a single topic.”
- There were 10 episodes, and averaged ~2,750 words per post.Season 3 (the goal): “one main topic (but only ~250 words) plus a few other bullets and links.”
- So, basically it is the baby of Season 1 and Season 2.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below, on Twitter, or in the anonymous feedback section at the end of this post!
*ICYMI, here are the ten episodes from last season, Season 2:
1. What We Can Learn From $ABNB & $DASH
2. Censorship Debate Overshadows News of The Storming of The Capital
3. Should You Buy Bitcoin?
4. Why GameStop Matters
5. Why DTC is Eating the World
6. Oscillating Between Focus & Exploration
7. Investing in 2021
8. Our New Social Norms
9. The Shift to Micro-Communities 🏴☠️
10. WTF are NFTs?
Alright, enough about me.
Let’s get to exploring the most interesting topics from the week!
Learning Machines
“I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does that help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you.”
-Charlie Munger
Found in David Cancel’s 100th edition of his newsletter, The One Thing. Check out a few of his most important lessons he’s learned over the past couple of years, in his latest post: 100 lessons in 100 weeks.
I’m a big fan of David, and his leadership style at Drift. I highly recommend giving his newsletter a sub, especially if you are a manager or founder.
Books that suck you in and books that spin you out
Some books have a centripetal force— they suck you in from other books.
Some books have a centrifugal force — they spin you out to other books.
Moby-Dick, for example, is a book whose force seems to me centripetal: after being pointed to it by other books, I found myself returning to it, again and again. It sucks me in.
The Writer’s Map, on the other hand, a glorious current read of mine, is a book whose force feels centrifugal: two chapters in, and I already have a long list of books and to chase down. It spins me out.
Both kinds of books can be extremely valuable to the reader, and I don’t think one kind is necessarily better than the other. I’m also not sure that these forces are objectively observed. One reader’s centripetal book could be another’s centrifugal, and vice versa. It’s also possible that a book can both suck you in and spin you out.
Read this entire article by the legend, Austin Kleon. It is short and sweet!
Tesla and a Super Bull
Anand from CB Insights posted an amazing article outlining Ark Invest’s latest stance on Tesla. It was, indeed, very bullish. Check it out here (skip to the bottom half of the article for the relevant overview on Ark’s analysis on Tesla). Below is an excerpt.
Last week, hedge fund Ark Invest, an investor in Tesla, came out with a $3000 price target on the EV maker by 2025 (currently at $620’ish). It was a masterclass/playbook in integrating marketing with data analysis.
Right now, Tesla is $620’ish. The Ark bear case pegged the price at $1500, the expected value at $3000, and the bull case at $4000.
The forecast assumes that Tesla would be an EV company, an insurance company, and an autonomous ride-hail company. And that it’d be really big in those other businesses where it is a zero today. And that autonomous ride-hailing is a thing by 2025.
Let’s see how it all plays out!
Portals to the Most Interesting Thoughts on The Internet
• #171 - Anthony Pompliano: Bitcoin | Lex Fridman Podcast
• Admitting defeat from his (VC-backed) competitor | Andrew Wilkinson’s Viral Twitter Thread (pro tip: save the ThreadReader version to Pocket, use the audio feature, and voila, you’ve got yourself a nice 10 minute mini-podcast!)
• How crypto can fix one of its biggest problems | Aaron Grunfeld & Brennan Spellacy, founders of Patch.io
• The return of the Macro Wars | Noahpinion
• Balaji Srinivasan on The Future of Bitcoin and Ethereum, How to Become Noncancelable, the Path to Personal Freedom and Wealth in a New World, the Changing Landscape of Warfare, and More (#506) | Tim Ferriss Podcast
• Bitclout is the new (controversial) hotness | My First Million Podcast
• The future of Twitter & misinformation: What CEO Jack Dorsey thinks (BlueSky) | Jack Dorsey’s opening remarks to Congress last week
Quote to Ponder
"Fear of failure is higher when you're not working on the problem.
If you are taking action, you are less worried about failure because you realize you can influence the outcome."
-James Clear
How did you feel about this week’s post?
(100% anonymous)
Happy Easter! (For those who celebrate it.) 💜
And for those who don’t celebrate it, I hope you find a chocolate peanut butter bunny on sale this week.
See y’all next week!
Cheers,
Brendan J Short
[Written while listening to The Biebs’ latest Tiny Desk concert]